Sunday, September 29, 2013
The Tropical Oceans and Solar Forcing
Using the G. Kopp TSI reconstruction available at SORCE spliced to the TSI satellite composite the Comp. Kopp series was constructed as shown and averaged into a 8.5 year trailing series to simulate the ocean mixing layer impact plus a 37 month centered average with 9 month lag to simulate the surface ABL interaction. The 8.5 year and 37 month series where combined with 1 and 0.5 scaling factors respectively. Alternating solar cycles are enhanced with this combination producing a Hale Cycle (~21 year) pulse that match the ERSSTv3b tropics (20s-20N) SST time series.
With enough degrees of freedom you can make about any fit you like, but this particular fits indicates that a "pause" in the tropical oceans may have started as early as 1980 had there not been volcanic noise.