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Friday, September 6, 2013

More Recovery Response Stuff

This is kind of cool.  The Kaplan Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation with the Oppo Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Reconstruction.  When I first came across the Oppo reconstruction I noticed that the binning seems to have a decade off due to the 50 year average of the samples.  I could be wrong, but in this chart Oppo 2004 is shifted one bin (10years) and the noisy AMO has 21 year smoothing which seems to match pretty well.

Oppo 2004 is a 2000 year reconstruction but I am just using from 1400 in the plot to show the gradual decline into the Little Ice Age and the gradual recovery.  There is only about 0.8 C of depression based on the 50 year smoothed and 10 year binned Oppo data.  The monthly AMO data in the back ground shows the huge range of variability for such a small 21 year averaged trend. From the period 1400 AD to 2012 AD, there is very little trend.

If I highlight just the AMO from 1910 to 2009 it is easy to see the century trends.  The secular trend, 0.2C per century based on the 1856 to 2012 AMO data is a close match for the Oppo data from 1700 AD.  Depending on your choice of smoothing, the natural variability trend can be up to 0.7 C per century and if you are really anal, you can take the trend from 1976 to 2010 and eke out 0.8C in 34 years or a century trend of 2.4C.  There is basically a factor of 10 range available for those that wish to manipulate data and public opinion.  We of course don't know anyone that might be so inclined.

"Well, that is just the AMO!" they cry.

Is it just the AMO?  Share this with a Minion of the Great and Powerful Carbon you may know and love. 

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